The real estate scene in September 2023 is telling an interesting tale, one that diverges from the national trends. Real estate, we must remember, is all about location, location, location. So, while the rest of the nation might be headed in one direction, our local market is charting its own course.

Let’s dive into the details of the September 2023 Closed Units Report, which paints a vivid picture of our local real estate landscape, comparing it to September 2019 data.

The data we’re examining is sourced from the California Regional MLS (CRMLS) and was compiled as of October 1, 2023.

In September 2019, our local market witnessed a total of 193 closed escrows spanning from Crestline to Running Springs. Fast forward to September 2023, and the picture has shifted significantly, with only 73 closed units – a substantial 37-percent decrease in closed September units year over year.

To break it down further, in September 2019, Crestline saw 30 closings, Running Springs 45 and Lake Arrowhead led the way with a staggering 118 closings, representing over 60 percent of the market. However, in 2023, Crestline recorded 32 closings, Running Springs had 10, and Lake Arrowhead followed closely with 31. The data now shows a near-even distribution of market share between Crestline and Lake Arrowhead, each accounting for roughly 40 percent of the closed units for the month.

As of October 1, 2023, there are 460 single-family residences (SFRs) for sale across our region, with 67 properties currently in escrow. Crestline boasts 113 available SFRs with 22 open escrows, Running Springs has 78 SFRs for sale and 10 open escrows, while Lake Arrowhead leads the pack with 269 SFRs available and 35 open escrows.

Now, let’s look at what these numbers mean for the balance between supply and demand. To gauge this, we divide the number of homes currently on the market by the number of homes sold in the last month. A result above 7 signifies a buyer’s market, while below 5 indicates a seller’s market. Anything in between is a neutral market. In our local context, the number sits at 6.3, indicating a neutral market with a little over a six-month supply readily available.

A neutral market is often seen as positive by real estate professionals. It signifies a balance in negotiations, where neither buyers nor sellers hold a significant statistical advantage. This translates to less stress for clients on both sides of the deal.

Even with interest rates hovering between 7 and 8 percent, our data show a healthy supply of buyers in the marketplace. This may be attributed to creative finance negotiations, including 2-1 interest rate buydowns, assumable mortgages and an increasingly transparent process overall.

Should you have questions or need further insights, don’t hesitate to reach out to your preferred local real estate agent. As Steve Harney from Keeping Current Matters wisely advises: “Most agents know what’s happening. Good agents understand what’s happening. Great agents can explain what’s happening.” Ensure that your chosen real estate agent falls into the “great” category, as they can provide you with the clarity and guidance you need in navigating our ever-evolving local real estate landscape.

If you’d like to learn more about the current local market conditions, explore available options or subscribe to local market statistics that you can follow at your own pace, reach out to Theresa Grant, Real Estate Broker (DRE #01202881) at [email protected]. You can also follow her on Instagram, @theresagrantrealtor, and YouTube, @theresagrantrealtor.