When national headlines toss around the word “recession,” it’s easy to assume the sky is falling. So when U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on CNN’s State of the Union that housing is in a recession, it sparked understandable concern. But as with most things in real estate, national trends don’t always tell the local story—and here in the San Bernardino mountain communities, the data points to something much more complicated, and much less alarming.
A housing recession—unlike an economic recession—isn’t defined by GDP or unemployment numbers. It simply refers to a sustained slowdown in real estate activity: fewer sales, fewer new builds, and declining prices over several months. Nationally, that’s been true to a degree. Sales volume has cooled compared to the frenzy of 2021–2022, and builders have pulled back in many metro areas.
But locally, the market is showing fresh signs of life. According to recent CRMLS data for Lake Arrowhead, Crestline, and Running Springs, the average days on market have decreased notably over the past 30 to 60 days, signaling that homes are moving faster again. That’s not what you see in a true recessionary environment. In fact, we’re also seeing multiple offers return across several price ranges, particularly for well-priced and well-presented homes.
So what’s happening? The likely answer is that we’re transitioning out of the soft patch that followed last year’s rate hikes. With mortgage rates dipping from their summer highs, buyers who had been sitting on the sidelines are jumping back in. Inventory remains limited in many of our mountain zip codes, and that imbalance continues to support values—especially for homes that hit the sweet spot of price, condition, and location.
That doesn’t mean sellers can throw caution to the wind. Overpricing still stalls listings, and today’s buyers are well-informed and value-conscious. But it does mean that fears of a “housing recession” here in our local market are likely overstated. What we’re seeing is more of a market reset—a normalization after several years of extreme ups and downs.
A true housing recession would show deep, sustained price cuts, long market times, and sellers chasing values downward. Instead, we’re seeing renewed competition, quick offers on desirable listings, and price stability returning to the footholds of our real estate landscape.
If you’re a buyer, this period offers a rare balance—less chaos than the pandemic years, but still enough inventory to have options. If you’re a seller, smart pricing and strategic presentation remain the keys to success, but the good news is that demand hasn’t disappeared—it’s simply recalibrated.
So, are we in a housing recession here in the mountains? By the numbers, no. The national story may be one of slowdown, but locally, the market’s pulse is quickening again—and that’s a welcome sign that housing in our community remains resilient, not recessed.
Theresa Grant is a real estate broker and columnist covering Lake Arrowhead, Crestline, Running Springs and the surrounding mountain communities. Reach her at (909) 442-1345, visit www.HomesInLakeArrowhead.com and follow her on social media, @TheresaGrantRealtor. Theresa is a Broker Associate with REAL Broker Technologies. DRE#01202881.
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